India-China border, "high-sea fishing" for Chinese entrepreneurs, Halloween, teachers' passports Week in Review #32

Hi folks. So for the last few weeks, I was marking the 1-year anniversary of this newsletter, in the form of putting out my Master Plan and answering questions about me and about my thinking about China in general. But for those of you new to this newsletter, let me explain this is not what you would normally expect.

Normally, you would expect to see me reviewing events of the last week(s) that I think carry long-term weight in China. I try to stick to a weekly publishing schedule but there is no guarantee about it. Sometimes if there are weeks when I haven’t done any weekly reviews, the next review (like this one you are reading right now) will not just be about events of the last week, but the last few weeks or months as well.

Occasionally, I may also publish some in-depth essays about some major themes.

The “weekly reviews” will be mostly paid content, while the “essays” will be mostly free for a few days. [If you are already a paying subscriber of Baiguan, please also find me for complimentary access to this newsletter or a pro-rated refund if you have already double-spent.]

#1 India-China border disengagement

Perhaps the most monumental piece of news related to China in the last few weeks was what happened between India and China on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting in Kazan. The two sides agreed to pull back from the face-off points along the disputed border areas, ending a 4-year military standoff that was marked by medieval warfare and deaths.

Of 14 countries that China shares a land border with, there are only 2 countries that have remaining border disputes, which are India and Bhutan. But considering Bhutan is a client state of India, it’s really just India that has a land border dispute with China.

Although the disengagement agreement is no resolution of the dispute, it’s definitely moving in the right direction for both countries. In the short to medium term at least, it will also help greatly alleviate China’s risks along the Southwestern direction.

I can’t help but wonder whether the recent spat between India and Canada and the coup in Bangladesh ousting a friend of India have contributed to Modi’s thinking when he came to talk with Xi in Kazan.

It seems to an outsider onlooker like me that ever since India refused to condemn Russia but chose to buy cheap oils from Russia instead, the US has been trying to pressure India to co-opt through subtle and non-subtle maneuvers. But the US should bear in mind for a country as large and as self-respecting as India (just like China), coercion often doesn’t work but would only risk backfiring.

Back in the old days, the US would engage with the PRC, two ideological opposites of each other, just to counterbalance America’s real arch-rival at the time, the USSR. If the same playbook was repeated today, the US should have partnered closely with India and helped make India “the next China” with aid and investments, no matter what position India has on Russia or any other issues that the US doesn’t agree with.

This should have been the obvious course of action if the US is serious about countering China. I don’t know whether it’s the lack of willingness to go against its liberal-globalist ideology, or the lack of capacity to help foreign powers succeed, or both, that makes the US ever drifting away from this more sensible path.

[In the paid section below, I will touch on so-called “high-sea fishing” of China’s private businesses, Shanghai’s muted Halloween celebration, and reports that low-level public sector employees, including even teachers, are handing over their passports]

#2 "High sea fishing" for China’s private businesses