In terms of insecurity, I agree this is a gross misinterpretation of a phenomenon which may well be unique to China. In my more than 20 years in China, 1988-1993 and 2003-2019, I felt throughout, that particularly Han-Chinese people take enormous pride in their country, perhaps one may call it love, and they desperately want this love to be shared by others and therefore strive for appreciation and recognition, more than any other people, IMHO.
They are very receptive to flattery, if it is about China. It is neither superficial patriotism, dumb nationalism nor simple pride, it is not religion or superstition, it is something else.
There is no better way of frustrating a Han-Chinese than withholding recognition of China's whatever. They genuinely do not understand, if someone does not appreciate at least some features of China. The uniform, unison, 100% predictable reaction is "you don't understand China", which may well be deemed the worst possible level of condemnation.
On continuous paise and recognition, you will eventually get upgraded from 老朋友 "old friend" beta to 中国通 1.0, "China expert", the highest level a foreigner can ever attain, short of becoming a China citizen. Unfortunately, this title may well include Stalin's "useful idiot", so the default old friend beta version is the by far more comfortable title you want to carry.
This, lets call it "neediness", is currently also expressed in ever lighter visa requirements for foreign travelers to China. While on the surface this may not be viewed as something special, such a retreat of China's overbearing, kafkaesque bureaucracy is a really big deal in China. The low numbers of travelers expressing disinterest hurts and worries China's government more than one may think. They want travelers to come to China and appreciate it. Absurdly, foreign travelers flocking to China may well be a measure of validation of government.
Whatever all this may be, it is definitely not an expression of insecurity.
Ok, upon seeing these questions and objections, here are my own - note well, some of them are quite minor:
Robert: "China is like this entitled brat in the school, [.......] he can act foolishly angry. "
Do you really mean to imply that China can act foolishly angry on the international stage?
Is open show of anger in accordance with the morality of 'saving face'?
Robert: "You can’t persuade someone in the 1200s that the Earth is round as a ball [...]"
It is a historical myth that medieval Europeans generally thought the Earth was flat.
Robert: "There are some famous Insecure-Expansionist Empires in history, such as Nazi Germany, Soviet Union, Imperial Japan, and, cough cough, certain big country located to the north of China "
This remark simply shows that your understanding of the Soviet Union and modern Russia is grossly distorted.
I think what many people in the west don’t get is it is not insecurity that Chinese feel but the need for respect, which plays a huge role in Chinese culture.
And regarding the topic, no, I think there is a below 0.01 odds that Xi is planning to take Taiwan in his lifetime. So at this fundamental assumption level I disagree with the links you have shared. I will explain my reasoning and proof in the second installment of this series.
Gordon Chang is a known China-basher with no shame, who prioritizes ideology over facts, who habitually bashes China for bashing's sake. His most famous work is his 2001 book the Coming Collapse of China. I mean, China might just collapse tomorrow, but if this dude made a bold prediction but it took 23 years to happen, you know he must be clueless. Oh and by the way China is not collapsing tomorrow, so the clock is still counting for him.
I don’t doubt it. It’s funny, if you read history about America, there’s been people saying the same thing, calling for collapse, since the very beginning in or before 1788. Go figure, “sky is falling” sells. Probably always will.
Hello again Robert, thank you for sharing my thoughts here. I have to say that my disagreements still stem from my belief that the CCP and the Chinese people are two different things (as ruling parties in other parts of the world are also distant from their peoples).
"Hold us accountable for who we aspire to be, not for who we are not."
I believe that the CCP's articulation of a "shared future of humankind” probably reflected a lot of Chinese people's aspirations, but not the CCP's own aspirations. That is where Yang Jiechi's comment comes in. If his comment contradicted CCP policy, then why didn't it censure him?
I would rather hold people accountable to their actions, not their words. These days, we're looking at Bhutan and the Philippines.
Re: Sun Tzu, I recommend reading this article. He has been badly misinterpreted:
In terms of insecurity, I agree this is a gross misinterpretation of a phenomenon which may well be unique to China. In my more than 20 years in China, 1988-1993 and 2003-2019, I felt throughout, that particularly Han-Chinese people take enormous pride in their country, perhaps one may call it love, and they desperately want this love to be shared by others and therefore strive for appreciation and recognition, more than any other people, IMHO.
They are very receptive to flattery, if it is about China. It is neither superficial patriotism, dumb nationalism nor simple pride, it is not religion or superstition, it is something else.
There is no better way of frustrating a Han-Chinese than withholding recognition of China's whatever. They genuinely do not understand, if someone does not appreciate at least some features of China. The uniform, unison, 100% predictable reaction is "you don't understand China", which may well be deemed the worst possible level of condemnation.
On continuous paise and recognition, you will eventually get upgraded from 老朋友 "old friend" beta to 中国通 1.0, "China expert", the highest level a foreigner can ever attain, short of becoming a China citizen. Unfortunately, this title may well include Stalin's "useful idiot", so the default old friend beta version is the by far more comfortable title you want to carry.
This, lets call it "neediness", is currently also expressed in ever lighter visa requirements for foreign travelers to China. While on the surface this may not be viewed as something special, such a retreat of China's overbearing, kafkaesque bureaucracy is a really big deal in China. The low numbers of travelers expressing disinterest hurts and worries China's government more than one may think. They want travelers to come to China and appreciate it. Absurdly, foreign travelers flocking to China may well be a measure of validation of government.
Whatever all this may be, it is definitely not an expression of insecurity.
This is so accurate!
Ok, upon seeing these questions and objections, here are my own - note well, some of them are quite minor:
Robert: "China is like this entitled brat in the school, [.......] he can act foolishly angry. "
Do you really mean to imply that China can act foolishly angry on the international stage?
Is open show of anger in accordance with the morality of 'saving face'?
Robert: "You can’t persuade someone in the 1200s that the Earth is round as a ball [...]"
It is a historical myth that medieval Europeans generally thought the Earth was flat.
Robert: "There are some famous Insecure-Expansionist Empires in history, such as Nazi Germany, Soviet Union, Imperial Japan, and, cough cough, certain big country located to the north of China "
This remark simply shows that your understanding of the Soviet Union and modern Russia is grossly distorted.
I'm new to Substack but I devour your essays like popcorn! Too bad I now have 3 Milennia of Chinese History to brush up on
Best wishes for a rapid recovery.
This may be helpful intro to the latest peer reviewed work on easing effects and rapid recovery for any viral causes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-ddS47V8bY
Thanks Robert for your strong response to Noah’s!
I think what many people in the west don’t get is it is not insecurity that Chinese feel but the need for respect, which plays a huge role in Chinese culture.
On another note, I also worry that analysts focus only on the problems of China in investment analyses especially the leadership: https://open.substack.com/pub/drjohnrutledge/p/cnbc-fast-money?r=2mwew&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
I look forward to your second installment.
There were some pieces recently about Noah’s first point Re Xi wanting war and possible relation to purges.
https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/xi-jinping-is-in-a-battle-with-chinas-own-military-and-the-outcome-could-drag-the-us-into-wwiii/articleshow/106864483.cms
https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/american-grand-strategy-logic-of-war-edward-luttwak/
We may perhaps never know, but what would you put the odds? 0 chance? 0.25?
And regarding the topic, no, I think there is a below 0.01 odds that Xi is planning to take Taiwan in his lifetime. So at this fundamental assumption level I disagree with the links you have shared. I will explain my reasoning and proof in the second installment of this series.
Gordon Chang is a known China-basher with no shame, who prioritizes ideology over facts, who habitually bashes China for bashing's sake. His most famous work is his 2001 book the Coming Collapse of China. I mean, China might just collapse tomorrow, but if this dude made a bold prediction but it took 23 years to happen, you know he must be clueless. Oh and by the way China is not collapsing tomorrow, so the clock is still counting for him.
China definitely not collapsing. Thanks for background on this Gordon Chang guy, I didn’t know of him before.
He made good bucks playing this persona.
I don’t doubt it. It’s funny, if you read history about America, there’s been people saying the same thing, calling for collapse, since the very beginning in or before 1788. Go figure, “sky is falling” sells. Probably always will.
Hello again Robert, thank you for sharing my thoughts here. I have to say that my disagreements still stem from my belief that the CCP and the Chinese people are two different things (as ruling parties in other parts of the world are also distant from their peoples).
"Hold us accountable for who we aspire to be, not for who we are not."
I believe that the CCP's articulation of a "shared future of humankind” probably reflected a lot of Chinese people's aspirations, but not the CCP's own aspirations. That is where Yang Jiechi's comment comes in. If his comment contradicted CCP policy, then why didn't it censure him?
I would rather hold people accountable to their actions, not their words. These days, we're looking at Bhutan and the Philippines.
Re: Sun Tzu, I recommend reading this article. He has been badly misinterpreted:
https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2020/6/15/sun-tzus-fighting-words
Robert: I will talk about the “low-trust” nature of Chinese society one day, it’s a fascinating topic.....
It is devoutly to be wished that you do that sooner rather than later.... As you're probably aware, it goes against the grain. Fascinating indeed.
will do!