China is the Iron Bank, with only commercial interests, not political ambition in the West(eros)
So China will not get itself involved in the Israel-Iran War
It’s only June of 2025, but the past few months feel very long.
On top of the trench warfare in Ukraine, unending deaths and struggles in Gaza, a historic air combat between two nuclear powers with a combined population of 1.6 billion people, we now have another major war in the Middle East that has already decimated the majority of the Iranian military’s top brass. From the Adriatic all the way to Kashmir, the heartland of Eurasia is embroiled in chaos and bloodshed. Even Trump’s ill-advised trade war seems forgotten by many.
With the world in flames, China seems like a safe harbor. In my social media feeds, I see no lack of people, even liberal-minded ones, cherishing the kind of peace and stability we currently enjoy. Our waters are calm, the world’s suffering distant, and even if we occasionally see it on short videos, with a few swipes, it’s gone.
Some people are baffled: Why is China not doing more to join the fray?
It’s true that China has a closer and warmer relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran than many countries, especially in the West, to the point that for the China hawks sitting in DC, China is unquestionedly (but absurdly) put together with Russia, Iran, and North Korea as the so-called “Axis of Upheaval” grouping.
If China is really such an “Axis” power, shouldn’t China already weigh in by now, lending strong and tangible military support to the Ayatollah? If not sending some troops to the Persian Gulf directly, at least creating some troubles in the Asian waters will help Iran relieve some pressure?
Instead, apart from offering some words of condemnation against Israel, China has done nothing of the sort, nor is there any such plan at all.
Naturally, such aloofness frustrates both the kind of warmongers who view China as Darth Vader…
… as well as those who think of China as an angel standing for moral leadership, alike:
To be sure, China is not an ally of Iran. In fact, the official Chinese policy is to be a military ally with no one, and the country with which China has some sort of NATO-like arrangement is exactly ZERO.
China is neither plotting to take over the world, nor does it care about claiming some kind of leadership role. For those of you who believe otherwise, I find that you are often projecting yourself onto understanding China. You are only looking at yourself in the mirror here.
So what does China want?
Forgive me for using an analogy with Game of Thrones again. It’s just such a great story with both Western and Eastern wisdom inside, and a good analogy will serve your understanding rather than a bad one.
The last time I used the GoT analogy, I wrote:
I always feel that "Game of Thrones" is like a metaphor for the 21st century. While dragons (China) and Westeros families (the West) fight for the Iron Throne, winter is creeping on all of us, unnoticed by those caught in the game. Winter is coming.
In retrospect, I made a grave mistake in seeing the Dragon Queen as an analogy for China. The United States may well be King Robert Baratheon, strong and martial, handsome and charming when he was a young man, and still powerful enough today to weld together the Seven Kingdoms with fire and steel, but his power is visibly waning.
To the US, China is the Dragon Queen, young, rising, with a birthright inheriting from a long historical tradition, vengeance in the heart, and an ever-growing army across the Ocean that must be strangled in its crib.
But he is wrong. China is not Daenerys Stormborn. He gets the wrong adversary.
Sure, China is rising and getting stronger. Sure, the Chinese people believe strongly that they are meant to be strong because they have been the world’s preeminent power many times. Sure, China has some historical grievances. But the crucial difference between China’s dragons and those of the Dragon Queen is that those historical grievances serve more as a reminder to self-cultivate, rather than a call to arms to subjugate the West in retaliation.
And the most important difference is that, while Dragon Queen sets her eye on the Iron Throne across the sea, China has no such interests.
China is not the Dragon Queen. Instead, China is the Iron Bank.
Like the Iron Bank, China is looking to be a global financier, supporting infrastructure buildout around the world, with credit lines ultimately backed by its ever-growing material wealth and productivity.
Like the Iron Bank, China couldn’t care less who is fighting whom in your own backyard. To whomever is open to doing business with China, and not hostile to China’s commercial interests, China opens its arms.
Russia is fighting Ukraine, and you are accusing China of supporting Russia by trading with the Russians? Well, in the counter next door, the Iron Bank is trading with Ukraine as well, like this tweet by
:
“Robert, you keep saying China is not war-like, but what about China’s neighbors? What about all those border issues in the South China Sea?”
This line of inquiry is weakened by the day when compared with all the killings in the world right now. Those water cannon skirmishes and boat rammings, but no shots fired and no missiles launched, resulting in not a single life lost (apart from one finger from a Filipino sailor), suddenly look extremely civil to the world, don't they?
, a fellow Substacker and former Chief Editor of SCMP recently wrote that, thanks to Trump, US threat of a ‘peaceful evolution’ recedes for China:As American beliefs and values, once aptly described as of “a city upon a hill”, have lost their lustre, Trump’s declaration that the US is done nation-building and intervening could not have come at a more opportune moment for China.
I’d argue that the growing conflict and wars around the world are in some way another “gift” for China. As time goes by, and as China consciously stays away from conflicts around the world, more people will start to appreciate the “Iron Bank power” that China truly is.
China is not going to be another global hegemon as an alternative to the US, but it will probably still present an alternative world order, in which the No.1 power on the stage is nothing but a merchant-banker.
Lack of principles? Lack of moral leadership? Perhaps. But between a world where people stuck to their own principles kill each other, and a world where people trade with each other in peace, which one will you choose?
The global capital market is certainly taking notice. 2025 marks the year when the “uninvestable” label for Chinese assets was buried for good, not least because of the backdrop of global chaos. Renminbi, the Chinese currency, is gradually appreciating. And despite the trade war and a domestic economy that’s still far from full recovery, the stock index in Hong Kong, where most of the China-bound international investors park their precious cargo, has returned an impressive 20%+ year to date.
Welcome to the Iron Bank. The door is always open for the good traders among you.
