Jets down here and there, and the great re-alignment of global supply chains
China Translated - Briefing #49
Welcome to Brief #49. Every now and then, whenever I see something that has a long-lasting impact related to China, I will try to send you such a briefing.
There is a lot of misinformation flowing around about the ongoing India-Pakistan conflict right now. But at least this bit is known for sure: 1) This may well be the largest air combat in modern history involving at least 100 fighter jets in total, and 2) at least some Indian jets, including at least some French-made Rafales, were shot down by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). While PAF claimed as many as 6 Indian jets were shot down, mainstream Reuters’ report has confirmed that at least two were down, citing US intelligence sources, and that they were shot down by China-made J-10C fighter jets.
Moreover, the Pakistani side’s show of transparency and details, culminating in a post-battle PowerPoint + audio presentation by the PAF top brass, contrasts sharply with the utter silence and the big scramble to close off information from the Indian side, which lends further credibility to Pakistan’s claims.
It appears that this is the first time Chinese-made warplanes have been engaged in actual combat, even though the J-10C is only an old member of China’s arsenal, while Rafale is said to be a model on par with F-22.
I am no military expert, and I am never fond of memorizing weapon models or specs, but I know this about business: nothing beats a good product demo like a live one. Afterwards, it’s not hard to imagine a huge influx of product enquiries from foreign buyers. No wonder, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft (302132.CN), the maker of J-10C, has seen its stock price surging by more than 30% after the conflict broke out.
Someone I know to be embedded in China’s defense industry shared with me a publicly available article about how J-10C with PL-15 missiles managed to take down one of the most advanced Western weapon systems like Rafale, and is said to be “close to the truth”. It’s quite amazing. It seems the Rafale itself is okay, but China’s weaponry wins at the system level. I will share a translation at the end of this note behind the paywall.
I would not even need to comment on the implications of this for Taiwan. I am guessing China’s actual military strength has been frenetically re-assessed by many corners of the world right now.
It is also tempting not to be reminded of recent incidents happening to American jets. On the same day, on May 7, when the India-Pakistan conflict broke out, the US also lost a fighter jet:
An F/A-18E Super Hornet fighter jet assigned to the USS Harry S. Truman has been lost in the Red Sea, a defense official confirmed to CBS News. The two pilots aboard the aircraft sustained minor injuries in the ordeal.
And it’s the second loss in merely 8 days:
On April 28, a Super Hornet was being towed in the Truman hangar bay when crews lost control of the aircraft and it went overboard, along with the tow tractor. One sailor suffered minor injuries in the incident.
And there is a triple coincidence. May 7 also marked the 26th anniversary of the deadly US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, an episode I commented on last year, which was also a wake-up call for China’s defence industry.
What is going on here? Can it be coincidence which just happens to fit the “east up, west down” narrative so well? Divine intervention?
I don’t know. What I do know is our world is inexorably heading in a direction where supply chains will be segregated into at least two big systems. Now, with this live product demo, the rest of the world has a much better reason to purchase China’s weapon systems, one of the last areas in global trade where the US still has a dominant role compared with China.
And the US has also been trying to establish its on hold on supply chains, as demonstrated by the recent US-UK trade deal. According to the Financial Times:
Thursday’s trade deal offered tariff relief to both industries, but only on the condition that Britain “work to promptly meet US requirements” on their supply chain security and the “ownership of relevant production facilities”. UK officials said the provision applied to some third countries but acknowledged that Trump had signalled that China was the intended target.
It’s also certain that as US hegemony fades, more chaos and conflicts will rise. Now, two nuclear powers can be engaged in a massive dogfight, while the world watches it unfold on our phones, battles each other with AI-generated memes and misinformation, and discusses which stock would benefit.
Welcome to 2025, possibly not many years away from the Apocalypse.
[The content below, a translation of how J-10C took down Rafales, is reserved for the paying subscribers. If you are a paying subscriber of Baiguan, please contact me for complimentary access or a refund if you have double-spent.]