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The Gadfly Doctrine's avatar

I’m genuinely shocked that self-described “China Hands” can make such a large statistical error. It suggests not just a numerical slip, but a complete blind spot toward the Chinese diaspora. The United States has more than five million Chinese-Americans, and even by extremely conservative estimates at least two million of them are fully literate in Chinese. That is 0.6 percent of the U.S. population. Using the podcast’s own number of ten million fluent English speakers in China, that is 0.7 percent of China’s population. The supposed 30-to-1 or 100-to-1 imbalance simply doesn’t exist. Using their percentages, the gap is 1.7 to 1.

There is also an important regional reality that never appears in these discussions. English fluency in China is overwhelmingly concentrated in a few municipalities around elite universities and corporate headquarters. If you go to Tengchong, Xishuangbanna, Tieli, Nanning, or hundreds of other prefecture-level cities, it is difficult to find a single fluent English speaker on duty even in hotels. By contrast, Chinese literacy in the U.S. is widespread across dozens of states because of the size and depth of the diaspora.

The error here isn’t just mathematical; it is conceptual. It ignores millions of Chinese-literate Americans and inflates the idea of functional English fluency inside China. Anyone who has lived and travelled deeply in both countries knows the reality is far more balanced than the narrative being presented.

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Peter Liu's avatar

Great observations and thinking!

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