TSMC, Tariffs, Two sessions, Trillion-yuan venture guidance fund
China Translated - Week in Review #43
Hi folks, thanks for voting at the latest polls regarding what I should write next. It seems that only slightly over one-third of you prefer me to discuss Taiwan first, while the majority of those who voted would want to read about the idea that China has a “low-trust” society.
Your voice is heard. The next post will cover this “low-trust” idea.
However, for this edition of Week in Review, I will first touch on a Taiwan-related event happening this week that has a long-term impact.
#1 TSMC and chip manufacturing’s role in the Taiwan Question
In a win for Trump, TSMC is looking to invest $100b in the US, more than 3 times its capex in 2024. From CNBC:
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing will pour $100 billion into bolstering chip manufacturing in the U.S., President Donald Trump announced Monday.
The president called the investment a “tremendous move by the most powerful company in the world.” The new capital brings TSMC’s total investment in the U.S. to $165 billion and will go toward building five new fabrication facilities in Arizona.
There is much coping from the DPP, Taiwan’s ruling party, on this event. For instance, this is how Bi-khim Hsiao declared:
The expansion of TSMC’s global presence with this additional $100 billion US investment announcement will further solidify Taiwan-US tech cooperation as force multipliers for AI and other emerging tech.
“Solidify”? I am unsure whether this will sound convincing after the shocking Trump-Zelenskyy face-off fewer than 3 days before this, and how would this $100 billion not be seen as some sort of extortion or payback that Uncle Trump is demanding.
Perhaps the most significant thing for me personally, is that just a day before this news about TSMC, I had a mini-debate with someone about TSMC in
’s member channel. During that debate, a significant idea that I hadn’t previously thought about just dawned on me:For the Taiwan Question, TSMC and the security of the global chip manufacturing supply chain occupy a tremendously larger mind share for the US than for China.
For American policymakers, TSMC occupies perhaps, I guess, at least 40-50% of mind share? I may be wrong. So, if you are an American, welcome to join the poll below regarding this question.
And what do you think the mind share this question holds for China?
At the very most, 5%.
Perhaps even only 1-2%.
In any case, it’s a tiny issue for China.
Such a huge discrepancy in each side’s understanding may lay the foundation for how the Taiwan Question may be resolved in the end. And if my guessing is true, then the time of completion of TSMC’s US investment will be a crucial geopolitical indicator to watch very closely.
[The rest of this post on the tariff war, the Two Sessions, and the Trillion-yuan NDRC VC fund will be reserved for paying subscribers.
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