Look, since we're running with this America-China divorce metaphor... ASEAN and Africa are basically those savvy kids who've mastered the art of playing both parents. You know the type - "But Daddy Xi promised me a Belt and Road!" followed by "Mom America, I thought we had a special Indo-Pacific thing going?"
The EU is totally that meddling mother-in-law who keeps forwarding relationship advice articles nobody asked for, insisting "you two just need to communicate better!" while passive-progressively criticizing everyone's trade policies over dinner.
And us Aussies? Well, we started as the well-meaning couples counselor ("Have you tried a bilateral dialogue about your feelings?"), but let's be honest - we quickly realized there's way more money in handling the divorce proceedings. Nothing personal, just business... and maybe a few defense contracts. 💼
P.S. We're happy to hold onto any disputed assets while you figure things out. For safekeeping, of course. 😉
“Like any divorce, there will be minimal interest for each side to talk to each other. Like any divorce, the couple try to “decouple” from each other as soon as possible.”
I wouldn't say any or all divorce is like this. Some divorces (and breakups) are often one sided (or at least starts off as one sided): one spouse/partner can't stand any longer and can't wait to break free, while the other desperately tries to hold it together, often by compromising and giving up something. However efforts are often frutile. I have always said, it takes two to tango and make a relationship work; but it only takes one to end one.
Thanks for your thoughts. One other change from Dominant Power to Lesser Power was Great Britain. The transition from GB to the United States was gradual and peaceful (after 1814).
Of course, both shared a language and much culture and history.
I only say this to show that powers can go down gracefully when they feel affinity for the up and coming power.
Imagine, for a second, an alliance between the USA and China. It is almost unimaginable at the moment. But just imagine it. What would the world look like if the USA and China were allied and cooperating? Would the world look better?
This is my preferred path and it’s really not too hard a world to imagine because this was largely the direction we were heading towards until very recently.
I think the divorce talk is pretty stupid. It’s up there with the Cold War talk.
At the end of the day the main issue is one of reform. Everything else is a convenient distraction.
1) "China has not and will not set up a military alliance, and China is not sponsoring proxy wars or coups in other parts of the world."
2) "China is way more integrated with the global economy than the Soviet Union ever was. Judging from the recent policy stance, China will be even more so."
I do believe the US is transitioning into recognizing and respecting China's power while figuring out ways to work together that are in America's interests.
Recently, Trump said the US and China could work together "to solve all of the problems of the world". Nixon (or even Clinton or Bush) would've never said this.
Obviously, the big difference to the divorce analogy is that the set of leaders managing the relationship changes every 4-8 years. Some leaders are more ideological and want to assert dominance while others are more pragmatic and want to do what is in their best interest.
When you're in a situation where you have big domestic problems and are financially overextended, then getting back at your ex doesn't seem like such a good idea anymore.
Regardless of whether or not Trump is exaggerating, the fact is that his comment is the truth. The US and China are the two greatest economic and technological superpowers the world has ever seen. They could move mountains working together.
Look, since we're running with this America-China divorce metaphor... ASEAN and Africa are basically those savvy kids who've mastered the art of playing both parents. You know the type - "But Daddy Xi promised me a Belt and Road!" followed by "Mom America, I thought we had a special Indo-Pacific thing going?"
The EU is totally that meddling mother-in-law who keeps forwarding relationship advice articles nobody asked for, insisting "you two just need to communicate better!" while passive-progressively criticizing everyone's trade policies over dinner.
And us Aussies? Well, we started as the well-meaning couples counselor ("Have you tried a bilateral dialogue about your feelings?"), but let's be honest - we quickly realized there's way more money in handling the divorce proceedings. Nothing personal, just business... and maybe a few defense contracts. 💼
P.S. We're happy to hold onto any disputed assets while you figure things out. For safekeeping, of course. 😉
“Like any divorce, there will be minimal interest for each side to talk to each other. Like any divorce, the couple try to “decouple” from each other as soon as possible.”
I wouldn't say any or all divorce is like this. Some divorces (and breakups) are often one sided (or at least starts off as one sided): one spouse/partner can't stand any longer and can't wait to break free, while the other desperately tries to hold it together, often by compromising and giving up something. However efforts are often frutile. I have always said, it takes two to tango and make a relationship work; but it only takes one to end one.
Certainly some parallel our current situation.
子曰：“必也正名乎！” Sorry. I know it's corny, but I had to.
子曰：您说的真对
Thanks for your thoughts. One other change from Dominant Power to Lesser Power was Great Britain. The transition from GB to the United States was gradual and peaceful (after 1814).
Of course, both shared a language and much culture and history.
I only say this to show that powers can go down gracefully when they feel affinity for the up and coming power.
Imagine, for a second, an alliance between the USA and China. It is almost unimaginable at the moment. But just imagine it. What would the world look like if the USA and China were allied and cooperating? Would the world look better?
This is my preferred path and it’s really not too hard a world to imagine because this was largely the direction we were heading towards until very recently.
I think the divorce talk is pretty stupid. It’s up there with the Cold War talk.
At the end of the day the main issue is one of reform. Everything else is a convenient distraction.
Very interesting and apt analogy!
Great points as to why US-China war is unlikely:
1) "China has not and will not set up a military alliance, and China is not sponsoring proxy wars or coups in other parts of the world."
2) "China is way more integrated with the global economy than the Soviet Union ever was. Judging from the recent policy stance, China will be even more so."
I do believe the US is transitioning into recognizing and respecting China's power while figuring out ways to work together that are in America's interests.
Recently, Trump said the US and China could work together "to solve all of the problems of the world". Nixon (or even Clinton or Bush) would've never said this.
Obviously, the big difference to the divorce analogy is that the set of leaders managing the relationship changes every 4-8 years. Some leaders are more ideological and want to assert dominance while others are more pragmatic and want to do what is in their best interest.
When you're in a situation where you have big domestic problems and are financially overextended, then getting back at your ex doesn't seem like such a good idea anymore.
"Recently, Trump said the US and China could work together "to solve all of the problems of the world".
You are aware that Trump has been known to stretch the truth to feed his ego, yes? Chinese leaders are not that gullible.
Regardless of whether or not Trump is exaggerating, the fact is that his comment is the truth. The US and China are the two greatest economic and technological superpowers the world has ever seen. They could move mountains working together.
As you've pointed out, whether or not they will is up for debate, but the former editor-in-chief of SCMP argues Trump's policies could help China https://wangxiangwei.substack.com/p/my-latest-column-trump-20-may-not
The operative word is “could”. Even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day…
Oh, I have no doubts that China will benefit from Trump’s chaos and that the U.S. will be paying a lot of ‘alimony’ for this divorce.
“War is zero-sum” actually not, it’s negative sum.