My gut after watching neo-cons in power for nearly 4 decades tells me the Tariff War is the first step in attacking China, not only by hitting China with insane Tariffs rates but by hitting other important markets for China. This is in part in preparation for attacking Iran. These Tariffs are intended to bring down/destroy demand in all the other world's economies that are tied into China. Yes, This will create economic chaos that will weaken both Washington and China. However, like the Sanctions War on Russia, the neo-conservative elites who favor this plan believe they can keep the fraud of American style democracy going while single party China will descend into chaos. There is a lot of infighting naturally among the elites but the old money will win out since Trump is killing his base on their orders.
The 2nd step is to wreck the Middle East, cut off gas and oil exports. These exports support both China and China's export markets in EU and Asia. This step started before step 1, but the foot falls by attacking Iran. They expect Iran will take out all the oil producers in the Gulf as a retaliation, so most of the onus/blame will fall on Iran. This will certainly hurt the USA, but they expect it will be nearly fatal to China. Messy but the same ill-logic as step 1 applies to Washington Neo-conservative Thinking.
The third step, create proxy war over Taiwan to directly isolate China inside the UN. It will also help destroy anything remaining of East Asian economy, plus completely cut off Australia, Japan, and Philippines from China, etc. If it accidentally turns into full out nuclear war, well that is a risk the neo-conservatives are willing to take as K.J. Noh pointed out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T9TlnHXymU&t=790s
That's my estimation of their plan. I don't think it will work as they expect, as China and it's people can take a lot of pain, much more than Americans. China will be hurt, but thanks to Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Council and Bricks, China will look like a sweet paradise compared to what is going to go down in the EU. It will even look pretty decent as a shelter compared to the USA. I hope this forecast is way off, but that's my gut feeling. If the Tariffs stay where they are, that means the faction using Trump has won the battle of the oligarchs, for now.
I want to add that these are not smart people, clever yes, but not smart. The Ukraine SMO crisis and the entire treatment of Russia since the 1990s is proof of the idiot pudding.
I don't think the issues are all that difficult to understand. What is difficult to understand is how other countries, particularly China/Russia, will respond. I think China's options are limited, but I sure hope they won't go Tojo route. Then again, if an attempt to conquer Taiwan is inevitable, now is better.
Trump has a long history of success in hardball, but sometimes things don't work out. They are not neocons.
We'll see tighter integration with the rest of the world. Perhaps Europe will decide to go it alone, but I think I would try to sign an agreement with Trump to buy stuff and/or reimburse domestic industries unless China can control Russia. Trump won't be around forever.
Please dont use headlines like "drops nuclear bomb"
And try to minimize your own gut reactions to mock the US.
A more neutral delivery of your very interesting updates would be favorable.
Keep up the good work 👍🏻
Hey Robert,
I, too, got banned from posting on Noah's blog for 1,000 years. That guy is worse than the CCP when it comes to dissent.
Maybe trump should have used instead of liberation liquidation day 🙄
My gut after watching neo-cons in power for nearly 4 decades tells me the Tariff War is the first step in attacking China, not only by hitting China with insane Tariffs rates but by hitting other important markets for China. This is in part in preparation for attacking Iran. These Tariffs are intended to bring down/destroy demand in all the other world's economies that are tied into China. Yes, This will create economic chaos that will weaken both Washington and China. However, like the Sanctions War on Russia, the neo-conservative elites who favor this plan believe they can keep the fraud of American style democracy going while single party China will descend into chaos. There is a lot of infighting naturally among the elites but the old money will win out since Trump is killing his base on their orders.
The 2nd step is to wreck the Middle East, cut off gas and oil exports. These exports support both China and China's export markets in EU and Asia. This step started before step 1, but the foot falls by attacking Iran. They expect Iran will take out all the oil producers in the Gulf as a retaliation, so most of the onus/blame will fall on Iran. This will certainly hurt the USA, but they expect it will be nearly fatal to China. Messy but the same ill-logic as step 1 applies to Washington Neo-conservative Thinking.
The third step, create proxy war over Taiwan to directly isolate China inside the UN. It will also help destroy anything remaining of East Asian economy, plus completely cut off Australia, Japan, and Philippines from China, etc. If it accidentally turns into full out nuclear war, well that is a risk the neo-conservatives are willing to take as K.J. Noh pointed out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T9TlnHXymU&t=790s
That's my estimation of their plan. I don't think it will work as they expect, as China and it's people can take a lot of pain, much more than Americans. China will be hurt, but thanks to Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Council and Bricks, China will look like a sweet paradise compared to what is going to go down in the EU. It will even look pretty decent as a shelter compared to the USA. I hope this forecast is way off, but that's my gut feeling. If the Tariffs stay where they are, that means the faction using Trump has won the battle of the oligarchs, for now.
I want to add that these are not smart people, clever yes, but not smart. The Ukraine SMO crisis and the entire treatment of Russia since the 1990s is proof of the idiot pudding.
I don't think the issues are all that difficult to understand. What is difficult to understand is how other countries, particularly China/Russia, will respond. I think China's options are limited, but I sure hope they won't go Tojo route. Then again, if an attempt to conquer Taiwan is inevitable, now is better.
Trump has a long history of success in hardball, but sometimes things don't work out. They are not neocons.
interesting alternate take: https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1909491586641047713
I feel tempted to click on your new logo's dropdown arrow for language switch
We'll see tighter integration with the rest of the world. Perhaps Europe will decide to go it alone, but I think I would try to sign an agreement with Trump to buy stuff and/or reimburse domestic industries unless China can control Russia. Trump won't be around forever.
Do feel bad for countries like Bangladesh.