Only a few days after we left the eventful 2025, this new year has already presented us with yet more Hollywood-level theatrics. On January 3, the world witnessed an extraordinary display of American power. "Operation Absolute Resolve" saw U.S. forces extract Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the heart of Caracas. To Washington, this was a long-delayed act of justice against a "narco-terror-dictator." To everyone else, it was imperialism distilled in its purest form.
Tactically, the operation was very impressive. It was decisive and effective, and a long-standing adversary was removed in a single stroke, without prolonged escalation or domestic political cost.
Strategically, it could well end up in a disaster. History offers plenty of reminders that tactical brilliance and strategic wisdom are not the same thing. The Iraq War, too, was executed with speed and overwhelming force, and went on to reshape the region in ways its proponents neither intended nor controlled. And the fact that Donald Trump is great at improvisation, but never at strategic thinking, only hardens the suspicion.
Inevitably, China also becomes part of the conversation. Ostensibly, only hours before the dramatic capture, a Chinese envoy had just met Maduro himself. This is bad optics showing China’s cluelessness, while also reinforcing the perception that Caracas sits firmly within Beijing’s geopolitical orbit.
For years, China has been Venezuela’s most important external lifeline: a major creditor, a long-term oil partner, and a diplomatic “friend” when the regime was isolated by the West. In the public imagination, especially outside China, Venezuela is therefore not just another failed state, but a symbol of China’s influence in the Global South and of its willingness to back embattled regimes in defiance of Washington. Seen through that lens, the Maduro episode is almost automatically interpreted as China-adjacent, whether or not Beijing had any role in the events themselves.
Two different kinds of narratives quickly emerge. One treats the Maduro operation as a sort of a green light for China, as if Beijing were watching Washington to see what precedents it might now exploit elsewhere. The other frames it as a warning, a demonstration of American resolve meant to deter China from testing U.S. red lines.
Both are quite silly.
First of all, although the Jan 3 operation is a massive gold mine for Beijing’s PR efforts, Beijing does not need a “green light” from Mar-a-Lago before making moves in its own neighborhood. China’s decisions regarding Taiwan are governed by domestic legitimacy issues and calculated risk, not by whether the U.S. follows international law. Beijing sees America’s current lack of respect for both morality and legality as a given, and a flexible tool of convenience. It is neither surprised when the U.S. breaks the rules, nor does it feel it needs “permission” to follow suit.
Also, is this a “permission” anyway? For a person as unscrupulous as Trump, the distaste for double standards doesn’t exist at all. So he could perfectly square his power to arrest another head of state at will, while preventing anyone else from doing the same. Beijing is not so misguided as to take this “moral signaling” seriously.
And to suggest that this operation can act as some kind of deterrent is beyond ridiculous. What deterrent? That U.S. special forces might parachute into Zhongnanhai and abduct Xi Jinping?
What both camps of these commentators obfuscate is that this event, fundamentally, has not much to do with China. It’s America’s problem, not China’s. What is really at stake is what kind of power the US is and what type of image the US wishes to project to the world. China is, by and large, only a bystander watching this show.
Then there is also the usual refrain that China is giving up on its “ally”. Once again: China has no allies and is not seeking alliances. There has never been a Chinese version of the Warsaw Pact, and there will not be. China does not like the idea of fighting other people’s wars. It’s just not the Chinese way of thinking about things, and I have discussed this before.
There are three substantive things, however, that China will really be pondering as a result of this episode, and I will explain in the paid section below. (Visit here to claim your Baiguan member benefits for free access)
