Occasionally I write in Chinese, geared toward the Chinese audience.
You will find the English translation at the end.
大选结果出来了，川普压倒性胜利。
最近一个月前在外网上我评论了几句，说只要民调结果是模棱两可的，就一定是川普赢。
作为数据公司，天天搞统计学的，我们太知道所谓民调是怎么回事了。
结果被哈里斯的忠粉们骂的狗血淋头。
而我评论的时候，SpaceX的筷子还没夹火箭，马斯克还未帮他全面站台，Joe Rogan的播客节目还没有上。
前几天，哈里斯突然又反弹了一下，又有“大棋论”观点说义乌指数已经指向哈里斯要赢了。
只能呵呵一下。
其实，我一直想说，就算这次川普没赢，也会有下一个他。就算不是2024，就是2028，就是2032。这是一个可以无限循环直到这个必然结果的算法。
为什么呢？
因为帝国终究是维持不下去了。
维持全球性帝国的代价是极其高的。日子好的时候，国内民众会买账。
但日子总有不好的时候。老百姓总有不再想买账的那天。
上个月我读了《时代周刊》创始人Henry Luce在1941年，珍珠港事件前几个月写的长文章。那篇文章里，他苦口婆心地劝说当时的美国人，你们不要搞孤立主义啊，要放眼看世界啊，要抗击纳粹啊，要抓住历史机遇让20世纪成为"美国世纪"啊。
这篇文章给我的震撼，在于“苦口婆心”。
在那个年代，劝说美国人把实力输出出去，是很困难的。
当然后面的剧情大家都知道了。
珍珠港一声炮响，美国终于冲向世界。
正好世界也被打烂了，美国人用实力和自己独特的价值观构建出了一个全新的战后秩序。
苏联解体后，这个秩序成为了全球的基本规则。
这个秩序的背后是由美元、美国商品、美军基地以及价值主张所构成的完整体系。
但是，这个秩序其实对美国本土国民性的改变是不大的。
除了开始有America No.1 的观念，美国人还是那个美国人。
1941年12月7日之前的那些需要被苦口婆心劝说还不能走向世界的美国人，他们对世界依然不了解、没兴趣、无所谓。
但是，这个秩序是有很强惯性的。它培养了一批政、商、军、情、学、媒的精英们，是基辛格们，是布什们，是鲍尔森们，他们天然与这个世界秩序绑定。
那些依附在这个秩序上的大部分其他国家，也希望这个秩序能维持下去。
毕竟有个老大哥（傻大个）帮大家把天撑起来不好么？
这就是美国面对的最根本的矛盾：
关注现实生活对世界毫不关心的普遍民众 vs 掌管全球秩序的精英们之间的矛盾。
但只要美国不会永远拥有绝对的实力，这个矛盾最后只会导向前者。
所以无论是2024，2028还是2032，这一天终于会到来。
美国最终会收缩，美国会撤回到美国，回到他们最舒服的、本来就是整体国民最适应的那种状态。
然而我今天想说的不是这个，而是关于我们自己，我们该怎么思考这件事情？
是应该暗自窃喜？还是兴高采烈觉得美国霸权要终结了？
我看到的更多是一种忧虑。
这个忧虑不是说特朗普上来会加多少关税。无论60%，还是600%，这都不是事。
我们啥没见识过？吃苦耐劳是我们的优良传统。贸易壁垒的短期痛苦只能倒逼我们变得更好。
真正担心应该是这个世界秩序瓦解的过程。
说一句冒天下之大不韪的话：我们又何尝不是美国主导的战后秩序的受益者？
没有美国做冤大头，付出高昂的世界经贸秩序的维稳成本，我们自己的发展怎么会这么快？
我们其实是免费搭了这套秩序的便车。
现在，秩序要开始瓦解，像俄乌、加沙、也门这样的情况会越来越多。世界会越来越乱。
更可怕的是，如果美国保护伞不在了，小兄弟们是不是也要纷纷考虑把核武器搞起来？毕竟现在人类的技术水平搞个核武器也是分分钟的事情。
在这样半年未有的变局中，我们真的有实力（包括硬实力和软实力）去捍卫我们的海外利益么？
我们真的能有效地传达我们的价值主张么？
更重要的是，在这个老大逐渐不想做老大，老二也还没能力做老大的最危险时刻，我们如何突破中美之间的极度互不信任，建立一个可行的合作框架，一起维护好这个世界的基本秩序？一起去直面人类社会所有那些共同需要面对的重大问题？
气候变化、战争、恐怖主义、核不扩散，在一个没有老大的世界里，这些问题如何管控？
我总觉得，《权力的游戏》就是21世纪的一个隐喻。
当天下大乱，龙族（我们）和Westeros的家族们（美西方）为铁王座打的不可开交的时候，真正的寒冬已经悄然袭来，而局中人还未反应过来。
Winter is coming.
English Translation:
The election results are in, with Trump securing a decisive victory.
About a month ago, I commented online that if polls didn’t show a clean Harris lead over Trump, then Trump would win.
As someone working at a data company dealing with statistics daily, we understand how polls really work.
This comment earned me harsh criticism from Harris supporters.
My comment came before SpaceX's successful “chopstick” landing, before Musk stood on the same stage and cheered for Trump, and before Trump’s Joe Rogan appearance.
In a few days leading up to the election day, Harris saw a brief surge, with some claiming the "Yiwu Index" predicted her victory. I can only smile at this.
I've always believed that even if Trump didn't win this time, someone like him would eventually emerge - if not in 2024, then in 2028 or 2032. This is an algorithm that will repeat until reaching its inevitable conclusion.
Why? Because the empire can't sustain itself forever.
Maintaining a global empire comes at an enormous cost. American people accept this during prosperous times, but not indefinitely.
Last month, I read Henry Luce's 1941 article The American Century in Time magazine, written months before Pearl Harbor. He earnestly urged Americans to abandon isolationism, engage with the world, fight Nazism, and seize the opportunity to make the 20th century "The American Century."
What struck me was how much persuasion this required. Back then, convincing Americans to project power globally was challenging.
We know what happened next. Pearl Harbor propelled America onto the world stage. With much of the world in ruins, America built a new post-war order with its power and unique values. After the Soviet collapse, this order became the dominant global framework.
This order was built on the dollar, American goods, military bases, and values. However, it didn't fundamentally change America’s national character. Beyond developing an "America No. 1" mentality, Americans remained largely the same - uninterested in and disconnected from world affairs.
Yet, on the other hand, this order has also developed strong inertia, nurturing political, business, military, intelligence, academic, and media elites - the Kissingers, Bushes, and Paulsons - who became intrinsically tied to it.
Other nations benefiting from this order also wanted it maintained. Isn’t it wonderful when there is a silly tall guy holding the umbrella for all of us?
This created America's fundamental contradiction: everyday citizens focused on domestic life vs. globalist elites managing world order.
As America's absolute power inevitably declines, this tension will resolve in favor of the former.
Whether in 2024, 2028, or 2032, America will eventually retract, returning to its more natural, domestically-focused state.
But what should China make of this? Should we rejoice at the potential end of American hegemony?
I see more cause for concern. Not about Trump's tariffs - whether 60% or 600%, we've endured worse. Trade barriers will only force us to improve.
The real concern is the process of dissolution of Pax Americana.
I will say something controversial here: weren't we also beneficiaries of the American-led post-war order?
Without America bearing the high costs of maintaining global economic order, could we have developed so rapidly? We effectively free-rode on this system.
As this order crumbles, we'll see more situations like Ukraine, Gaza, and Yemen. The world will become more chaotic.
More worryingly, without American protection, will smaller nations seek nuclear weapons? With the current state of technology, this isn't difficult.
In this unprecedented situation, do we have the power (both hard and soft) to defend our overseas interests? Can we effectively communicate our values?
Most importantly, at this most dangerous moment when the former No.1 is retreating from its dominant position, and the No.2 is yet to be ready to act as the No.1, how can we overcome deep U.S.-China mistrust to build a workable framework for maintaining basic world order and addressing humanity's common challenges?
Climate change, war, terrorism, nuclear proliferation - how do we manage these in a world without clear leadership?
I always feel that "Game of Thrones" is like a metaphor for the 21st century. While dragons (us) and Westeros families (the West) fight for the Iron Throne, winter is creeping on all of us, unnoticed by those caught in the game.
Winter is coming.
Great article. This is why America gets so frustrated when they perceive China as providing succour to destabilising forces in the global order such as Houthi rebels attacking shipping in the Red Sea, Putin invading his weaker neighbours and Iran sponsoring terrorism across the Middle East. They feel Chinese trade has free ridden on the global order preserved by Pax America.