After the first month, how bad is Trump for China?

China Translated - Week in Review #42

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After the first month, how bad is Trump for China?

This week’s review will be quite short, as not many things happened in China this week that would have a lasting impact on the future, except one: what Trump did to further dismantle the web of trust and alliances that the US has been a leader of for more than eighty years.

Sure, there is a “surprise” additional 10% tariff on China, which did contribute to a major market correction on Friday. But the US tariff is a manageable risk for China, and to be frank, it will be more painful for the US than for China. That’s probably why the Chinese side doesn’t seem to be in the mood to return to the negotiating table any time soon, suggesting a position of strength.

I will advise President Donald to jack up the tariff to 100%, or maybe 500%, or just set it as ∞ for god’s sake. Just get this thing over with so we can all go on with our lives without worrying about it.

All this tariff nonsense pales in terms of significance in front of what Donald has been doing to the US allies in the last few weeks. There were these absurd 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Vance’s speech in Munich, the Ukraine minerals deal, and the US-Russia “peace negotiation” that bears a striking resemblance to Versailles, even Munich. This satire never fails to entertain, every week and even every day. And just now, a new climax was reached, two television-showmen-turned-presidents openly bitching with each other and televising to the whole world.

Now, China is never directly involved in all of these dramas, but it’s hard not to contemplate that, perhaps, Trump’s first month has turned out to be quite good for China.

What Trump and Vance have managed to do in terms of international relations is the almost permanent destruction of trust in America’s ability to provide protections for its allies. And if Trump 1.0 was seen as a freak event, a bug in the US system, Trump 2.0 is now seen as a feature. Even if the globalists would retake the presidency in 2028, nobody would dare to trust the US to provide protection anymore. Nor would some of them even want that kind of mob protection, given this total collapse of moral high ground.

Europeans would pull themselves together quite quickly and build up the European Defense Force very soon. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines will all have a deep rethinking of their US policy. I am not even starting about the DPP. And for Canada and Mexico, I see no hope for them beyond giving up at least some part of their sovereignty to help the US to form “Fortress America”.

The fast-forward button is pressed to a truly multi-polar world, and China would thrive in a multi-polar world rather than a world in which the Collective West is pitting against it.

Within such context, it’s comical to see some news headlines this week, such as this about Trump Team seeking to toughen Biden’s chip controls over China.

Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts about restricting Tokyo Electron Ltd. and ASML Holding NV engineers from maintaining semiconductor gear in China, according to people familiar with the matter…

The working group-level meeting between US, Japanese and Dutch officials took place last week on the sidelines of a summit in Japan, people familiar with the matter said.

This all sounds very great. But seriously, would the “Japanese and Dutch officials” really care by now?

What crude hubris and insensitivity would lead “Trump officials” to assume that they do?