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The Gadfly Doctrine's avatar

I’m genuinely shocked that self-described “China Hands” can make such a large statistical error. It suggests not just a numerical slip, but a complete blind spot toward the Chinese diaspora. The United States has more than five million Chinese-Americans, and even by extremely conservative estimates at least two million of them are fully literate in Chinese. That is 0.6 percent of the U.S. population. Using the podcast’s own number of ten million fluent English speakers in China, that is 0.7 percent of China’s population. The supposed 30-to-1 or 100-to-1 imbalance simply doesn’t exist. Using their percentages, the gap is 1.7 to 1.

There is also an important regional reality that never appears in these discussions. English fluency in China is overwhelmingly concentrated in a few municipalities around elite universities and corporate headquarters. If you go to Tengchong, Xishuangbanna, Tieli, Nanning, or hundreds of other prefecture-level cities, it is difficult to find a single fluent English speaker on duty even in hotels. By contrast, Chinese literacy in the U.S. is widespread across dozens of states because of the size and depth of the diaspora.

The error here isn’t just mathematical; it is conceptual. It ignores millions of Chinese-literate Americans and inflates the idea of functional English fluency inside China. Anyone who has lived and travelled deeply in both countries knows the reality is far more balanced than the narrative being presented.

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Kurt's avatar

Apropos of nothing in particular, we're wrapping up our redecoration of the new joint in Wuchang and the young tradespeople all want me to take them to America (my career was in construction and consulting) because they've heard they can make a lot of money there. Which, for a high skill trades person, is true. Young Chinese trades workers kick ass. Same with the guy at the local car repair/car wash...he thinks he can make more money in America fixing cars. The absence of skilled trade labor in America is remarkable. Everyone wants to be an influencer, no one wants to be a laborer, even though one can knock down good money doing it. It's a class thing. No one wants to do it because they think it taints them. I know HVAC techs knocking down a quarter mil a year. Surprise! There's never been a better time to be a laborer.

Per Marco...He's just a dope. Thinking about him at all will rot your brain.

Per Noah... He's gone off a cliff. His latest excretion with that line of "in China, there's nothing to do but sit in your apartment or drive to the mall"...I've written him off. He's a one man exemplar of Turchen's theory of the overproduction of elites. I hate predictions, but I'll make one now... Noah will slowly melt away. It'll take several years, but how long can anyone knock out an informative, useful dally economics column? He's already running out of gas, which is why he has to go back to the well and write something stupid about China because he doesn't have anything intelligent to say about anything else. Reinventing oneself on a daily basis can only lead to attenuation. It takes time and reflection to write something worthwhile with useful information, emphasis on USEFUL.

Per Trump and his trade war... Why? He's a narcissistic moron. When I say he doesn't know what he's doing, I mean it literally. If his old man hadn't gifted him a half a billion dollars and one of the largest real estate businesses in America, he'd be deep frying chicken at Popeye's. No...wait...I like Popeye's. He'd be asking if you want fries with that.

Here in Wuchang, there's something like a million students within a (roughly) 5 kilometer radius of me. I don't hear much about dissing America. Maybe they're being polite (probably). There's an overemphasis on "Us vs. Them" in pop media theorizing. There's little (no) credible data, leading to inconclusiveness, which makes me conclude I'm going out for some midnight noodles.

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